A decline of approximately 10% versus last summer at the box office may not seem like cause for celebration in Hollywood right now. But put in context, even a decrease can be a good thing.
Consider the state of the domestic box office for the first four months of the year, when few titles managed to emerge as hits. It confirmed the growing chorus of pessimists pointing everywhere from exhibition company stock prices to theater closures as signs that movies were never going to recover from the one-two punch of the pandemic and the Hollywood strikes.
Then recall how badly this summer started, when high-profile flicks including “Furiosa” and “The Fall Guy” underperformed in May, bringing the revenue decrease versus the prior year to nearly 30%.
And yet somehow June kicked off a two-month hot streak in which not only did the biggest hits (i.e., Disney’s “Deadpool & Wolverine”) perform stronger than ever, even lesser franchises (Sony’s “Bad Boys”) stayed potent. Even amid the blockbuster-heavy summer, there were minor breakthroughs (Neon’s “Longlegs”) among lower-budgeted titles that shouldn’t be overlooked, as our analysis for VIP+ subscribers notes.
Suddenly being down 10% starts to seem like a huge victory. But that begs the question of whether the U.S. film business can maintain its momentum coming out of summer and into 2025.
Reassessing the state of the box office was the subject of the latest “Strictly Business” podcast from Variety, with a roundtable discussion featuring VIP+ president and chief media analyst Andrew Wallenstein, VIP+ media analyst Kaare Eriksen and Luminate manager of film research Julie Sesnovich.
Listen to the podcast here:
“The summer box office really had a lot of heavy lifting to do after a late winter/spring season that wasn’t matching up all that well to the same period last year,” said Eriksen. “However, as you know, we all saw a bunch of films powered through the downturn and a more barren calendar to really surprise much of the filmgoing public.”
August has provided a few indicators that the good times can keep rolling, including the solid returns from Sony drama “The End of Us,” which Sesnovich attributed to the traction the intellectual property already had in the marketplace via the bestselling book.
“And when there are so many executives smashing their heads against the wall saying, ‘How do we make money in this business?,’ adapting popular books can be a pretty easy and low-budget win,” she said.
“Strictly Business” is Variety’s weekly podcast featuring conversations with industry leaders about the business of media and entertainment. (Please click here to subscribe to our free newsletter.) New episodes debut every Wednesday and can be downloaded at Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, Spotify, Google Play, SoundCloud and more.
