The National Retail Federation predicts that 2024 holiday spending in the U.S. will grow 2.5 to 3.5 percent over the 2023 season, to between $980 billion and $990 billion.
NRF‘s conservative forecast is consistent with the plethora of previous forecasts for the season issued by researchers and experts across the industry, mostly for mid-to-low-single-digit gains. The NRF said that last year, Americans spent $955 billion during the holiday season, which was 3.9 percent more than in 2022.
“Overall the economy has been in a good place this year and operating on solid footing, which the retail industry and consumers continue to benefit from,” said Matt Shay, NRF’s president and chief executive officer. “Consumers continue to show resilience and strength in their spending.”
While inflation stands at over 2 percent, Shay pointed out that on the goods side, versus the services side of the economy, there has been 0.5 percent deflation this year, and because of that the 2.5 to 3.5 percent predicted sales growth means there will actually be an increase in the number of units consumers buy during the holiday season. “There has been real deflation in the cost of goods,” Shay said. “So many retailers have cut prices on thousands of items, including big retailers with national footprints.”
Matthew Shay
Courtesy image
Shay acknowledged that consumers have been “more moderated in their spending patterns, a bit more cautious, but overall they continue to spend on household items they need. The capacity to spend is supported by the healthy jobs market and wage growth at 3 to 4 percent generally outpacing inflation. Inflation on goods is flat to negative.” Inflation on food is up modestly, a half to 1 percent, Shay added.
Research and consulting firm Customer Growth Partners issued a somewhat rosier forecast, predicting a 4 percent year-over-year increase in 2024 holiday sales, totaling $963 billion, up from $926 billion in 2023. Back in August, Johnson predicted retail sales for holiday up between 2.5 and 3.5 percent.
CGP president Craig Johnson said the forecast indicates consumer spending “has fully normalized from its frenzied pandemic period pace. He cautioned that “the economy is flashing warning lights due to changing consumer behaviors. First, shoppers are buying closer to need, as they stretch out their family budgets in the face of inflation and rising interest rates. Also, households are shopping strategically, trading down if necessary while focusing on deep value retailers. The threat is that these two behavior changes have often been ‘tells’ of an upcoming recession, particularly if accompanied by rising food and energy prices.”
Forecasts from source to source will vary because they have different research methodologies. Some consider the holiday season longer than others, and they don’t necessarily all examine the same categories of merchandise. Also, they issue their outlooks at different dates, and often revise their forecasts as the year progresses. However, both the NRF and CGP exclude auto, gas and restaurants from their holiday forecasts, and define the holiday season as extending from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31.
While the economy and spending are holding up, a number of factors could impact holiday spending, including the devastation caused by Hurricanes Helene and Milton in the South, and the unfavorable calendar. There are only 27 days from Thanksgiving to the day before Christmas, five fewer than last year. Also, traditional big days for shopping gifts, in particular Black Friday, have lost some steam because retailers have been launching their holiday campaigns and promotions earlier, many even before Halloween. Recent sales results from luxury conglomerates and department stores have been soft, while off-pricers and mass merchants such as Walmart have fared better.
Black Friday shoppers in New York City.
Masato Onoda/WWD
CGP reported that the pet, office supply, vintage, health and personal care, apparel, food and beverage, and home improvement categories will be the best selling for holiday. On the weaker side, CGP listed sports, toys, hobbies and home furnishings.
NRF’s chief economist Jack Kleinhenz said retailers will see “solid consumer spending continuing. Household finances are in relatively good shape. There is strong impetus for spending during the holiday season.”
Kleinhenz did express some concern about rising consumer credit. “The concerns are valid but not at a critical level at this time. There is share of consumer credit delinquencies, but it’s relatively small,” at least for now.
“Inflation has been cooperating and encouraging,” Kleinhenz said. “The holiday season will see a reduction in prices, in some cases a full percent than a year ago, but a tenth of a percent overall.”
Shay said he expects to see “broader promotional activity than last year. More retailers will be engaged. Promotions will be more targeted and personalized, and broader across more brands and categories than we experienced a year ago.”
Among other holiday 2024 forecasts issued earlier this year:
- Salesforce predicted 2 percent global sales growth for November and December, totaling $1.19 trillion, up from $1.17 trillion in 2023. For just the U.S., Salesforce predicts a 2 percent year-over-year increase in 2024 holiday sales to $272 billion. Salesforce analyzes data from more than 1.5 billion global consumers on retail sites including 29 top 30 U.S. online retailers. The calculations blend first-party and third-party data, and several market assumptions.
- Coresight Research projected sales from October through December 4 percent ahead on average, with retail-specific inflation slightly negative or, at most, about flat at a weighted total level.
- Deloitte predicted consumers would spend $1,778 on average this holiday, up 8 percent.
- Adobe predicted that U.S. consumers would spend $240.8 billion online during November through December, representing an 8.4 percent online gain from holiday 2023.
